Monday, April 13, 2009

7 Games In

Well our beloved have actually come out of the gate pretty well so far and that sure beats the hell out of the alternative. Still it's awfully early and we all realize injuries could throw a monkey wrench into the whole operation.

Soto and Bradley are nicked up and we can only hope this isn't a precursor of things to come. But their are other weaknesses that could rear their ugly head apart from injuries and hopefully they won't be summarily dismissed because the team is winning.

Of course Lee's performance this far at the plate won't continue all season any more than Soriano will continue hitting home runs at this torrid pace. But Lee has been showing a decline in production for a couple of years now and I can't see the reason why he should receive more AB's almost every game than Ramirez. Lee should be hitting no higher than 5th and I'm being generous saying that.

The Cubs are also presented with a more fundamental problem with their SS. We all love Theriot's effort and while his torrid pace thus far cannot be sustained, clearly shows he is more than capable to get on base with the regularity needed from a hitter with so little power. The concern lies with the size of the gray matter between his ears especially on the bases and his decision making on defense. That doesn't even bring up the lack of arm and only average range for someone playing one of the most defensively challenging positions on the field.

The last concern is already starting to appear in the long relief of the bullpen. I'm not concerned if it's Marmol setting up Gregg or the other way around, but someone other than Heilman has to start showing some ability to throw strikes and get hitters out. It's fine to throw Marshall into the mix now when the schedule allows some flexibility with the 5ht starter, but when the season has those 15-20 game stretched with no days off, that luxury won't be available.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Swing Batter Batter, Swiiiiiing, Batter Swiiiiiiiing



Well the 2009 season starts in about an hour with our beloved men in blue opening up tomorrow night in Houston. I know it's a long season but I can't help but get a little pumped up for the Cubs first game of the new campaign.


What do you think will be the lineup? Will Zambrano go at least 6 strong innings? Will Fukudome screw himself totally into the ground when he swings and misses?


Whatever happens Lollygagger Girl Kerry, wishes every Cub fan a season to remember.



Go Cubs!

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Questions That Must Be Answered Correctly.

If the reasoning behind having Soriano bat lead off isn't flawed, then wouldn't hitting Bradley in the lead off spot be superior?

Does anyone still believe D Lee is the best hitter on the team? If he isn't, why is he still projected in the 3 hole?

We know that spring training stats don't mean that much but can anyone tell me they think Miles will be anywhere near as effective as Fontenot, and why Theriot doesn't deserve to hit lead off?

If Ramirez, the best hitter on the team the past two years is willing to hit in the 5 hole, what beef could any other hitter have hitting there?

What hitter other than Soto, is on the upswing of his career?

With the history of how this lineup has performed, is there any justification to bat Fukudome any higher than 8th?

What's wrong with the following lineup?

1) Theriot
2) Fontenot
3) Bradley/Ramirez
4) Bradley/Ramirez...Soto if Bradley isn't in the lineup
5) Soriano
6) Soto...Lee if Bradley isn't in the lineup
7) Lee...Fukudome/Johnson if Bradley isn't in the lineup
8) Fukudome/Johnson/Gathright

Friday, February 27, 2009

Bench Strength?





Let's face it folks, Jake Fox, Joey Gathright and Micah Hoffpauir are bench players for a reason. It's often a combination of things but whatever these players shortcomings are, they will need to play an effective role for the 2009 Cubs.

The Cubs have only played 2 games this spring but a grand slam and outfield assist from Hoffpauir, a 3 for 3 plus stolen base from Gathright, and a 3 run HR from Fox, are good signs from the three of them. Every team needs complimentary players that can provide some bench strength, versatility and insurance for the team's starters. It's a likely scenario that either Fox or Hoffpauir won't make the MLB roster when they break spring training, but hopefully the players that do go north with the Cubs will be important spokes in the Cubs wheel for 2009.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

The One/Two Punch

Much to my delight on this lazy Sunday afternoon, MLB network re-broadcast what they called "The Sandberg Game" from 1984. This was the game Ryno blasted 2 HR's off Bruce Sutter, one to tie the game in the 9th and the other to tie it in the 10th as the Cubs went on to beat the Cucking Fardinals.



Although much of the heroics went to Sandberg and deservedly so, another stat came to light from the broadcast booth. Before Sandberg belted his two HR's, it was noted that the lead off man Bobby Denier and the two hitter Sandberg, were 6 for 8 in the game and 17 for their last 28 AB's. When a team has two hitters at the top of their order that get on base so frequently, it is certainly easy to understand the great opportunities it provides them to score.

Of course anyone who was around during that season knew the Cubs just didn't have a run of the mill lineup behind Denier and Sandberg, but a murderous middle of the lineup with the likes of Sarge, the Bull, Zonk, Davis and the Penguin.

So how does our present day Cub lineup compare against that '84 lineup? Well as long as the Fonz is in the lead off spot, the lineup is weaker than it needs to be.

For your frame of reference, here is the '84 Cubs most used lineup...

Denier CF 278BA 356OBP 718OPS 63BB 60K 3HR 26DB 3TR 45SB
Sandberg 2B 314BA 367OBP 887OPS 52BB 101K 19HR 36DB 19TR 32SB
Sarge LF 291BA 410OBP 838OPS 103BB 97K 14HR 21DB 2TR 17SB
Bull 1B 279BA 369OBP 874OPS 69BB 86K 23HR 30DB 4TR 16SB
Zonk RF 279BA 326OBP 748OPS 34BB 71K 16HR 17DB
Davis C 256BA 315OBP 736OPS 47BB 99K 19HR 25DB
Penguin 3B 240BA 324OBP 766OPS 61BB 108K 25HR 27DB
Bowa SS 223BA 274OBP 542OPS 28BB 24K 0HR 14DB

So share your opinions on how to best set our Cubs 2009 lineup.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

If a 1 turned out to be 5



Piniella is now publicly suggesting he is going to explore moving Soriano out of the lead off spot. He states that he has spoken with Soriano and his star player is
willing to do so as long as he isn't bounced around between his new spot and his previous one, lead off. So the stage now seems set for their to be a legitimate open competition for the 1 hole in the lineup.

Much has been debated on Soriano's effectiveness in the lead off role even before he came to the Cubs. When Soriano was with the Yankees, he so frustrated Joe Torre that he was jettisoned down in the order before being jettisoned out of town.



Soriano is a hybrid player similar to Ricky Henderson, amazingly gifted athletes with speed and power. However, that is where the comparison ends. The main function of a lead off hitter is to get on base and create havoc for the opposing pitcher with the threat of stealing a base. Why Henderson was so valuable in the lead off role was that he could work the count and also get on base via the walk, which was reflected in his career OBP of 401. Soriano on the other hand does not have a good command of the strike zone and avoids walks like the plague, which is reflected in his career OBP of 329.



A more apt comparative player to Soriano is Carl Crawford of Tampa Bay. Crawford is another one of those hybrid players with not quite as much power. He was a staple in the lead off role for the Rays until they brought in a manager that realized how not having a patient hitter in the lead off spot hurt the team. Crawford ehibited many of the same characteristics that Soriano had with great speed and good power, but a poor OBP. Crawford's career OBP is 330.

Now Tampa Bay's manager moved Crawford to the 5 hole and explained to Crawford that in fact he was still given the opportunity to steal bases when the 3 & 4 hitters in front of him had the ability to clear the bases. Crawford also wouldn't be hampered by trying to do something he wasn't capable of, exhibiting patience. Crawford moving to the 5 hole would also allow him to approach is AB's naturally as the free swinger with power that he is. Piniella should take a cue from his replacement in Tampa and move Soriano into the 5 hole.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Playing Time

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training a week from Friday and I'm pumped, so I thought this little YouTube Video would get you all in the mood as well.

With much of the Cubs off season wheeling and dealing appearing to be over, I thought I'd propose how and who should make up the rotation and starting lineup. Of course we have a considerable number of givens here, but even though these suggestions may only mean small incremental improvements in the teams performance, why shouldn't they be done? Don't we often throw shit at the TV when a player makes a bonehead play or a manager makes an ill advised pitching change?

Givens in the rotation are fairly easy baring any injuries as Big Z, Dempster, Lilly and Harden in no particular order mind you are your first 4 starters. The 5th starter seems to be an open competition with the most deserving based on past performance being Marshall. I know we've all read how Piniella likes having Marshall as a swing-man but is that really what's best for the rotation? Do the Cubs really need a LHP that is most likely their best 5th starter to be the long man out of the pen? It's not like Marshall is going to be the 8th inning LH specialist to get that one monster LHB out is he?

Marshall as the 5th starter gives the rotation 2 LH starters which also helps negate some of the more prolific balanced lineups like the Phillies. The argument that Harden won't make all of his starts doesn't hold water if you use another pitcher on a consistent basis in the rotation that isn't as good as Marshall does it? I don't know who Marshall has to blow to get in the rotation but unless he's a total bust this spring he helps the Cubs the most in the rotation.

The number of givens in the everyday lineup is also pretty much set with Soriano LF, Bradley RF, Ramirez 3B, Theriot SS, Fontenot 2B, Lee 1B and Soto C. Most of the early press has centered on the platooning of Fukudome and Johnson in CF and this is where I have some reservations.

Fukudome's preference and for that matter his best defensive position is RF. Now I couldn't give a shit about what Fukudome's preference is but when we expect that Bradley may need a platoon partner for possibly as many as 60 games, that is who Fukudome should be platooning with. Fukudome would have to show me that he could be more productive offensively than Gathright to play more than that, which he most assuredly will if he platoons with Johnson in CF.

Now Gathright is a light hitter but does a number of things a top of the order guy must do and this is my point. Moving Soriano out of the lead off spot will increase the teams production. Gathright has plenty of speed and knows how to get on base via the bunt. In 279 AB's last year he had 15 bunt hits and platooning him with Johnson who had over a 350OBP last year, will mean no disruption in the lineup to accommodate the lead off hitter.

No one would be happier than me if Fukudome could hit 280 and bang out 20HR's, but unless he can show he has abandoned the twirly bird AB's this spring, his offensive production won't be as valuable to the team as the superior CF'er Gathright would in the lead off spot. If Fukudome has a great spring then I'm fine with him platooning in CF but if he reverts back to the pirouetting style that he employed the second half of last season, he has no business getting over 100 starts.

We all realize that other starters will get a blow especially during those long summer stretches of no days off but one player who might have the most productive replacement from an offensive standpoint is D Lee. M Hoffpauir is certainly not the typical replacement type player as most replacement players provide good defense but usually very little offense, which is not the case with Hoffpauir. Hoffpauir doesn't bring a lot to the table defensively but 1B is his strongest position and would hurt the team less there. He also should get some starts in LF and both of these positions are the least challenging defensively.

We've all seen Lee isn't the same run producer he has been in the past and more time off could only help him. Soriano has had some leg issues the last two seasons and especially in those hamstring tightening cold spring months could sure use a day off now and then.

Anyway, I'm sure some of you might disagree with some of my evaluations but who and when you give days off to and the replacement Piniella uses when he does, can when added together get the most out the talent he has to work with.

Sorry but I just can't help myself, here is one more YouTube Video for you.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

He used to be good, now he's Wuertz


I always liked Michael Wuertz, the RHRP with a nasty ass slider, who now has been jettisoned to the Oakland Athletics for Richie Robnett, a minor league outfielder with a career BA around 250 but has been said to have some raw power and Justin Sellers, a minor league middle infielder whose batting average is so low it fell off the chart and his biggest asset is he is a slick fielder.

I would think Hendry would much rather have received one player that could do both, but no other sane GM was going to trade for the $4M L Vizcaino, so Wuertz gets sent packing.

I'm scratching my head on this trade and will reserve my judgement after I see Vizcaino perform.

Over the Hill


Rich Hill, the former can't miss prospect of the Chicago Cubs, who started game 3 of the 2007 playoffs against the Arizona Diamondbacks has been sent packing to Wrigley Field East, the Baltimore Orioles.

The southpaw Hill's MLB career numbers, 18W 17L 4.37ERA 337IP 291H 309K 137BB 1.27WHIP,
on most any objective appraisal would appear to net the Cubs more than the infamous PTNL, but with Hill out of options and little chance of making the Cubs opening day lineup, he's gone for virtually nothing.

The story behind Hill's numbers is the real reason for his box of used jockstraps value, Hill had about as much intestinal fortitude as a spoiled Mama's boy.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Clearing The Deck


The Cubs are trying to get as much value as they can from players that are out of options and are blocked by others that are a known quantity. It first happened with Pie and now Cedeneo is traded for Hendry's long coveted pitcher Aaron Heilman.

These moves can be questioned but IMHO, the Cubs are serious playoff contenders and in essence moving Pie and Cedeneo actually netted about as much as could be expected.

Heilman is only 30 and except for last season was very serviceable out of the pen for the Mets. Heilman has long wanted to start and the move provides him this opportunity while at the same time providing the Cubs pitching depth and legitimate competition this spring for the 5th. starters spot.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Bye, Bye, Miss American Pie



Unfortunately Pie's package, no not those five tools he was noted to have but his "ouch it hurts me to even think about it" almost gelding like surgery, is what we'll remember as the most significant bit of news for the Cubs most recent position player failure.

The Cubs sent Pie packing to "wrigley field east" where Andy McPhail is still looking for validation of his GM tenure when with the Cubs. The Cubs did receive two pitching prospects from Baltimore and when added to the three pitching prospects acquired from Cleveland in the DeRosa deal, might give the Cubs the prospects needed to pry Peavy from San Diego. In any event, Pie days with the organization were numbered and the prospects received for him probably was as much as could be expected.

Good luck Felix. You deserved a better shot at making it in the bigs with the Cubs.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

The Holy Triumphant!

Many teams success derives from having better players to be sure, but when constructing a team most people in charge stand by the principles of the Holy Triumphant, pitching first, defense second and offense last.

The dynamic of placing these three aspects of building a team in this order is based on the assumption that every run allowed requires the team to score two runs to overcome. We all cringe when our pitchers walk hitters and our defense gives the opposition extra outs in an inning through errors for this reason. Now it is certainly true that a superior offense can make up for some of these shortcomings in the other areas, the fact remains that scoring runs even with the most prolific offense is the most difficult facet of the game to rely on day in and day out. I'm not saying it's even possible to build the perfect team, but to gamble on the quality of the pitching and defense in favor of offense is just neglecting reality.

So if we apply this model to the Cubs as presently constructed, we get an idea of what can or should have been done within certain budgets constraints, to build the most competitive team.

Pitching...Starters

The Cubs rotation is probably one of the best in baseball. The talk of possibly adding a pitcher like Peavy would certainly improve the already formidable rotation and if the other areas of the team are up to snuff, it certainly makes sense to improve the biggest known factor in effecting the outcome of a game.

Pitching...Bullpen

The Cubs have certainly weakened the bullpen by not resigning Wood, but most teams have budgets constraints and usually other weaknesses to address. Still, we have seen over and over again how many a strong team has faltered repeatedly by not being able to hold a lead provided. I have confidence that Marmol will be an effective closer but that most certainly leaves a tremendous hole for the present setup candidates to fill with Marmol's departure to the closers role. Also the team is short of an effective relief specialist to negate many of the oppositions best LHB's.

Defense

One glaring hole exists at the most important defensive position on the field not considering the catcher and that is SS. While slick fielding SS's don't grow on trees, the Cubs SS is ranked as one of the worst fielding SS's in either league. This is an area that cries out for improvement and Hendry should deem this weakness as one of his most pressing needs.

Offense

Apart from a legitimate lead off man, the Cubs offense is poised to score a shitload of runs. The moves made this off season have addressed the unbalanced lineup and added a significant offensive hitter as well.

If indeed money is available to acquire a salary the likes of Peavy, we should also consider that money isn't the only thing that it will cost the Cubs. A tremendous number of players will be forfeited as well by trading for Peavy and if the Cubs feel they need to add another starter, I'd much prefer a FA.

In Conclusion

Still it is questionable if adding another starter is the best use of additional payroll. Our old trading partner the Pittsburgh Pirates, are desperately looking to dump J Wilson's $7M salary. The Dodgers were interested before they resigned Furcal and I think the Pirates might even eat a million or so of Wilson's salary if they could receive a couple of young pitching prospects and a ML ready SS. If it took throwing in a Pie and/or Cedeneo as well, it's still a deal Hendry should make.

Theriot is coming off a career year at the plate and his value will never be higher, and the Pirates are a small market team that routinely needs to move players they can no longer afford. Wilson's range and fielding percentage rank only behind Tulowitzki and Furcal and if Hendry has more payroll at his disposal, upgrading a position that anchors the infield defense with one of the best fielding SS's who will most likely replace Theriot in the 8 hole in the lineup would seem to be the best use of that payroll.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Bing, Bang, Boom

Happy New Year you Hammerheads. Two of most Cubs fans wishes for the new year have finally happened. Marquis is jettisoned a mile high to the Rockies and the big left handed banger has been signed to patrol RF for the second year in a row. Of course this year we signed a player who has actually hit MLB pitching, and boy has Milton Bradley hit MLB pitching by putting up the highest OPS in the American League last year.

Many have decried the signing of Bradley due to his checkered past but Bradley is only 30, can still play defense at no worse than a league average level, and is a stud from either side of the plate.

Marquis departure was purely a salary dump and the Cubs cleared around $5M as a result. The Cubs did acquire L Vizcaino, a RHP pitcher that has never been anything better than average if that, but like I said, this freed up payroll to go after Bradley. Marquis was probably one of the better 5th starters in baseball but at almost $10M was a no brainer to move when a younger LHP Marshall that costs zip, will probably be better than Marquis and give the Cubs a second lefty in the rotation.

All in all, a good day for the Cubs who have implemented many of the priorities this off season by balancing their predominant RH lineup and becoming more athletic. I think they could still upgrade the bullpen with another LHRP, but I'm more than willing to go to war with this new version in 2009.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Hot Stove Rumors a Flyin'


No, she can't hit or catch but she can sure shake things up.

Still, when Marquis, Vizcaino, Bradley, Miles, DeRosa, Peavy, Marshall and prospects all hit the press in the span of 24 hours, it still deserves at least a Wow! Just when everybody was in their break between post Christmas and pre New Year naps, all hell breaks loose. Of course we all know the problem of getting hyped up over rumors, but it has been such a dull and slow off season, unless you're from the Bronx, that this is a pretty eventful newsday for the Cubs. So let's try and sort the rants from reality.

There has been no mystery of the Cubs intention to show Marquis the door and the recent rumblings seem to point to a legitimate trade with the Rockies for RHRP L Vizcaino. From what we hear, the Cubs will clear around $5M of salary to pursue other free agents.

There also seems to be no mystery on the Cubs pursuit of M. Bradley and reports seem to think a deal will be done in a week or so. Of course I'm mush more skeptical of these reports than the Marquis deal but the movement of Marquis can only help with acquiring the best free agent position player available for the Cubs.

Now for some fact, A. Miles seems to have reached a two year deal with the Cubs. No numbers have been released apart from that but he is a versatile career backup that might be needed if the following rumor is in fact true...

...the Peavy talks on back on. During the winter meetings when the Peavy trade was front and center, DeRosa was mentioned in a possible trade in order for the Cubs to sweeten the pot with prospects for the Padres. This is probably the impetus behind the Miles signing.

If a Peavy trade is possible, DeRosa will likely be moved as I'm sure Marshall will as well. I only hope Hnedry holds fast on his reluctance to include Vitters in any such trade package for Peavy.

That's it for now, but as always feel free to opine with your take on the recent rumblings.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

In and Out?


Well we know now that Gathright is in, does this mean Pie is out?

I'm as sad as anyone to see Pie not turn out, but he was never developed right from the jump. Gathright does the little things that make the most of his abilities, like 15 bunt hits last year in 279AB's. Pie never took that approach and we can only wonder if it was his resistance to learning or the organizations incompetence of developing those skills.

I believe the latter, only because Pie isn't the first speed guy to come up through the organization who failed to deliver on all the promise that was projected. Patterson was the other example of a young speed guy that had surprising pop in his bat that only digressed when coming to the majors. Pie like Patterson, were both blessed with many tools but the organization never got them to develop them to best make use of them.

Now I'm not saying that all prospects that are blessed with abilities like Patterson and Pie are surefire major league studs, but it seems that with the Cubs long history of bringing so few position players of any value to the majors, that there is something fundamentally wrong down on the farm.

Anyway, if Pie is actually gone, I wish him and his package, ouch, nothing but the best.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Winter Meeting Observations

With the Peavy soap opera behind us at least for now, a few things that were not quite so apparent have come into more focus now.

First, there was the misinformation being disseminated from the Tribsters that with the uncertainty of the economy and sale of the Cubs, there may not be much money to improve the club. We have now come to know, that while the Cubs won't spend like 2006, there seems to be plenty of cash to address many of the Cubs needs.

Second, Hendry seems to be willing to wheel and deal but only from a position of strength, and that is never a bad approach. I have often bashed Hendry's approach in haphazardly throwing around dollars and length of contracts with little foresight to see how those decisions might hamper his ability to maneuver effectively in the future. He has seemed to learn his lesson here, at least with respects to Peavy and I must give him his due on this one.

It seems now Hendry can devote his full attention to his preliminary discussions to land Milton Bradley. Out of the remaining free agent LH outfield free agents, Bradley is if not the best, is at least in the top two offensively. Bradley is also the youngest, not turning 31 until April of 2009 and the best defensively. Bradley came up as a CF'er and has played all outfield positions. This will give Piniella a tremendous flexibility in the field and with Bradley being a switch hitter, the tough righty or lefty matchups with opposing pitchers will be a non-issue.

Next it would seem through the failed Peavy negotiations, that as many as 8 or 10 teams would be interested in DeRosa. There is no doubt that Derosa's flexibility is a plus for any organization and if the Cubs can move him to free up a spot for a legit lead off man, DeRosa's value will never be higher coming off of a career year. If DeRosa numbers don't fall off the planet in '09, he will probably price himself out of the Cubs lineup when his contract expires at the end of next year anyway.

Hopefully Hendry will explore what he can garner for DeRosa, and a possible target in need of some power out of 3B like the Angels, may be willing to go for DeRosa, allowing them to let Figgins walk instead of offering the free agent a new deal. Figgins brings much of the same flexibilty as DeRosa does to play all over the field and is better than DeRosa defensively. What Hendry would give up in power with DeRosa, Figgins would give the Cubs in more speed, athleticism and a proven lead off hitter.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Bang for the Buck!

It seems that economic conditions have given tremendous cover for Hendry and the Cubs to go on the cheap for improving the ball club for 2009.

Without discussing the validity of this spin we can assume that if the offense is significantly upgraded, Hendry won't be able to address both the need for a legitimate leadoff man and a left handed power hitting outfielder. That begs the question, if the Cubs can go after only one, which should it be?

Well there are two camps here, so let's do a little plus/minus with the present roster and see what conclusions we can come up with.

Realistically looking at the Cubs big free agent acquisition of last year, the best we can hope for is a modest improvement. This of course still doesn't make Fukudome worth the money, but if can cut down on the strikeouts and put the ball in play more often, it might make the expense a little easier to swallow. Fukudome is still a plus defensively and brings another LHB to the lineup. He should start next season as the everyday RF'er and if he doesn't improve, waive his ass.

The Cubs once again find themselves in a position of having too many second baseman, and our SS may be best suited to play there as well. This is a real problem as only Cedeneo has superior defensive range and athleticism as a middle infielder but is one of the weaker ones offensively. I think Cedeneo would improve offensively if given the chance to play everyday but the Cubs probably only have a two year window with it's big guns to win it all and I just can't see Piniella going this direction.

The Cubs do have a LHB that plays 2B and although his sample of AB's is not large (479), his line of 290BA 369OBP 826OPS with 34 Doubles 5 Triples and 12 HR's is not to shabby. It's in the Cubs best interests to give Fontenot every shot to be the Cubs everyday second baseman this spring and plan accordingly. I know we have DeRosa's bat that needs to be in the lineup, but with his defensively versatility in the field, I think he can get his AB's and still be productive. DeRosa is coming off a career year and considering he may revert to his norm, his role as a bench player may not be as big a loss offensively as it looks on first blush.

If we look at the Cubs defensive shortcomings other than the Fonz in LF, which no one will replace his offensive numbers, the middle infield is the most susceptible. Theriot like DeRosa, is coming off of a career year and both of their trade values will probably never be higher. If Hendry can get a left handed hitting, superior glove to replace Theriot, it would help the team immeasurably. The team's first defensive priority should be as strong up the middle as possible. With Fukudome able to play CF if Pie doesn't make the team or is traded, the Cubs would be an excellent defensive team while adding at least 2 LHB's to the lineup.

A player like Furcal, would give you more bang for the buck as he would be both an offensive and defensive upgrade to the team while being a similar cost to adding an Abreu or Ibanez. Neither of these free agent outfielders is superior to Fukudome. There is no doubt both Abreu and Ibanez have displayed an ability to rake, but Abreu at this point in his career is an average RF'er at best and Ibanez hasn't played but a handful of games in RF his whole career.

The Cubs have plenty of thumpers, but have serious shortcomings with their leadoff man and SS. Come next seasons trading deadline, it will be much easier for the Cubs to replace an outfielder than a quality defensive SS that can leadoff.

A lineup that could feature up to four LHB's if Pie is able to make the team, you will have balanced the lineup significantly by replacing Theriot's bat with Furcals and DeRosa's bat with Fontenots. With Pie in CF, you've improved the overall team defense and speed, upgraded the leadoff spot and improved Soriano's RBI production. Against tough lefties DeRosa could spell Fukudome or Fontenot and Johnson could spell Pie. This allows Piniella offensive flexibility while still having the ability to make late inning defensive replacements.

Most people don't get second chances but Hendry does now. Go get Furcal now Jimbo, and don't make the same mistake twice.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Small Changes

Much has been made of two consecutive postseason sweeps of the Cubs with players, manager and fans, scratching their heads how a team on a roll entering the 2007 post season, and a team that won 97 games entering the 2008 post season could fail so miserably.

If we look at the pitching staff while not lights out, it's hard to say other than Dempster's walk-a-thon in the first game against the Dodgers, had very little to do with the Cubs losing the series. It can be argued that Piniella's game one decisions in 2007 and 2008 certainly didn't help the Cubs to victory, but the impotence of a season long productive offense, especially in 2008 was the big culprit.

It's not hard to understand that many players don't perform up to their regular season numbers during the post season as they are usually facing quality rotations where the 5th. and quite possibly the 4th. starter never start a game.

It doesn't discount the fine offensive season most of the Cubs had but it does shed some light on the fact that against quality pitching, many of the Cubs didn't perform as expected.

The point of this article is to see why, and explore some options that might help many of these same players be more productive.

First, there are very few playoff teams I can think of that start their lineup with a free swinging power hitter, even if he has speed. Sure there have been a few Ricky Henderson types, but anyone that isn't living under a rock understands that Alfonso Soriano isn't a Ricky Henderson.

The big boondoggle that has been perpetrated here is that Soriano is a leadoff man because he has so much experience hitting leadoff. Well if Soriano has all that experience, how come he isn't any fucking better at it?

Leadoff hitters work the count, not because they can't hit and are hoping to get a walk, but precisely the opposite. These are the most patient hitters on the team and they have the ability to spoil pitch after pitch until the pitcher makes a mistake or walks them. Building up those pitch counts for the opposing pitcher is the other important responsibility of a leadoff man and Soriano just fails at it miserably.

Of course Soriano has speed and when coupled with his power, it is the narcotic that clouds the minds of otherwise sane managers into thinking he can be a leadoff man, especially when the team doesn't have a proven option to replace him with.

Soriano has to move out of the leadoff spot. You just can't have an undisciplined whiff machine, getting more AB's than anyone else come the post season.

Second, it has been long acknowledged that a teams most productive hitter bats third in the lineup. You know the type, good average, low strikeouts, and good power with a knack to drive in runs. Do the Cubs have such a player? The closest player they have is Aramis Ramirez.

Derrick Lee has been the number three hitter since 2005 and while he still has a good BA and OBP, his power numbers have been declining and he still whiffs way to often. However if Lee hit in the 5 hole, he could provide protection for an undisciplined hitter like Soriano, hitting immediately behind him. If Soriano were to get on base, the patient Lee would allow Soriano to still run and possibly cut down on the 27 double plays Lee hit into last season.

This revised middle of the order would prove to be more effective with Soriano's power sandwiched between two of the more disciplined power hitters on the team and still afford Soriano plenty of AB's and opportunities to still steal a base.

Third, now that Soriano is out of the leadoff spot we need a replacement. As I mentioned earlier, you need a disciplined hitter to fill that role and for that matter the 2 hole as well. Ryan Theriot demonstrated last year that he can perform well for a whole season and actually had some experience, albeit with mixed results as a leadoff man. If Theriot was told from the jump that the leadoff role was his to lose, I think he could perform well there.

Many of the runs scored last year came as a result of having the high on base hitter Theriot, on base in front of the big bangers. If Theriot is inserted in the leadoff spot, the Cubs will need to replace him with an equally proficient on base machine in the 2 hole.

The righty/lefty tandem of Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot, would be the best suited to address the need for another disciplined hitter in that crucial 2 hole in the order. Both have shown discipline at the plate and of course that is the key ingredient of hitters at the top of the order.

Fourth, even without securing a power left handed bat, which I still hope is possible, I can't imagine Fukudome performing worse than he did the last half of 2008. If no acquisition is made, certainly Pie and possibly Hoffpauir, depending on how Fukudome is performing will see more time in the outfield. Of course the platooning of Reed Johnson in the outfield and DeRosa just about everywhere, will help the Cubs against the tough left handed pitchers.

This Cubs lineup is quite formidable and I haven't even mentioned our Rookie of the Year catcher Geovany Soto. He's a stud and will play most every game.

Hopefully a quality left handed bat for the middle of the order can be acquired before we enter next season but if not, the small adjustments mentioned above could get more consistent production out of the lineup against the top pitchers in the league.