Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Demp Gets His Due

Ryan Dempster is reportedly being resigned to the tune of 4 years at $54M. Now the question swings to if the Cubs could have spent that money more wisely.

Although Dempster may well not achieve a season like last year, there is every indication that he will perform as well as many the Cubs could have signed as free agents.

Here is a list of this years possible free agent pitchers...

Kris Benson rhp
1 year (2008)
released by Philadelphia 8/30/08
agent: Gregg Clifton
ML service: 8.000 (through 2006)

A.J. Burnett rhp
5 years/$55M (2006-10)
signed as a free agent 12/05
$6M signing bonus
06:$1M, 07:$12M, 08:$12M, 09:$12M, 10:$12M
Burnett may opt out of the contract after 2008
agent: Darek Braunecker & Mark Rodgers
ML service: 8.038

Paul Byrd rhp
2 years/$14.25M (2006-07), plus 2008 club option
2 years/$14.25M (2006-07), plus 2008 club option
signed as a free agent 12/05
06:$7M, 07:$7M, 08:$7.5M club option ($0.25M buyout)
2008 option may increase to $11M, with $1M buyout
agent: Bo McKinnis
ML service: 11.072

Shawn Chacon rhp
1 year/$2M (2008)
placed on release waivers by Houston 6/26/08, released 6/30/08
agent: Dan Horwits
ML service: 6.140

Matt Clement rhp
1 year/$1.5M (2008), plus 2009 club option
released by St. Louis 8/2/08
agent: Barry Axelrod
ML service: 9.024

Bartolo Colon rhp
1 year (2008)
signed by Boston as a free agent 2/25/08 (minor-league contract)
$1.25M on Major League roster ($18,000/month in minors)
deal includes up to $5.75M in roster, performance bonuses
contract purchased 5/21/08
placed on suspended list 9/19/08
placed on restricted list 9/25/08
agent: Mitch Frankel
ML service: 10.112

Shawn Estes lhp
1 year/$0.55M (2008)
free agent 10/5/08 after refusing outright assignment by San Diego
agent: Dave Meier
ML service: 10.101

Josh Fogg rhp
1 year/$1M (2008)
agent: Dan Horwits
ML service: 6.030

Freddy Garcia rhp
2008 contract purchased by Detroit 9/17/08
signed as a free agent 8/12/08 (minor-league contract)
agent: Peter Greenberg
ML service: 9.000

Jon Garland rhp
3 years/$29M (2006-08)
agent: Craig Landis
ML service: 7.071

Tom Glavine lhp
1 year/$8M (2008)
signed as a free agent 11/19/07
perks: suite on road
agent: Gregg Clifton
ML service: 20.052

Mike Hampton lhp
8 years/$121M (2001-08), plus 2009 club option
$20M signing bonus ($1M to charity, $19M deferred to 2009-18 at 3% interest)
01:$8M, 02:$8.5M, 03:$11M, 04:$12M, 05:$12.5M, 06:$13.5M, 07:$14.5M, 08:$15M, 09:$20M club option ($6M buyout)
agent: Mark Rodgers
ML service: 14.073

Mark Hendrickson lhp
1 year/$1.5M (2008)
ML service: 5.056

Livan Hernandez rhp
1 year/$5M (2008)
agent: Greg Genske
ML service: 11.097

Orlando Hernandez rhp
2 years/$12M (2007-08)
$1M signing bonus
07:$4.5M, 08:$6.5M
agent: Greg Genske
ML service: 9.117

Jason Jennings rhp
1 year/$4M (2008)
agent: Casey Close
ML service: 6.039

Randy Johnson lhp
2 years/$26M (2007-08)
agents: Alan Nero & Barry Meister
ML service: 19.020

Byung-Hyun Kim rhp
1 year/$0.85M (2008)
released by Pittsburgh 3/26/08 ($0.3M buyout)
agent: Scott Boras
ML service: 8.009

Jon Lieber rhp
1 year/$3.5M (2008)
agent: Rex Gary
ML service: 13.077

Esteban Loaiza rhp
3 years/$21.375M (2006-08), plus $7.5M 2009 club option
released by Chicago White Sox 7/25/08
agent: John Boggs
ML service: 12.052

Braden Looper rhp
3 years/$13.5M (2006-08)
signed as a free agent 12/05
06:$3.5M, 07:$4.5M, 08:$5.5M
$1M annually in performance bonuses (GF & other categories)
agent: Hendricks Sports
ML service: 9.012

Derek Lowe rhp
4 years/$36M (2005-08)
signed as a free agent 1/05
05:$7.5M, 06:$9M, 07:$9.5M, 08:$10M
agent: Scott Boras
ML service: 10.100

Greg Maddux rhp
1 year/$10M (2008)
acquired by LA Dodgers in trade from San Diego 8/19/08
agent: Scott Boras
drafted 1984 (2-31)
ML service: 21.021

Pedro Martinez rhp
4 years/$53M (2005-08)
$3.5M signing bonus (paid 05-08)
05:$10M, 06:$14M, 07:$14M, 08:$11M
$10M of 06-08 salaries deferred at 5% interest
agent: Fern Cuza, SFX
ML service: 15.026

Mark Mulder lhp
2 years/$13M (2007-08), plus 2009 club option
re-signed as a free agent 1/07
07:$5M, 08:$6.5M, 09:$11M club option ($1.5M buyout)
agent: Gregg Clifton
ML service: 7.167

Mike Mussina rhp
2 years/$23M (2007-08)
agent: Arn Tellum
ML service: 16.066

Russ Ortiz rhp
1 year/$0.38M (2007)
agent: John Boggs
ML service: 9.125

John Patterson rhp
1 year/$0.85M (2008)
released by Washington 3/20/08
agent: Casey Close
ML service: 4.126

Carl Pavano rhp
4 years/$39.95M (2005-08), plus 2009 club option
signed as a free agent 12/04
05:$9M, 06:$8M, 07:$10M, 08:$11M, 09:$13M club option
($1.95M buyout)
agent: Gregg Clifton
ML service: 9.161

Brad Penny rhp
3 years/$25.5M (2006-08), plus 2009 club option
signed extension 6/05
$3M signing bonus (paid 2006-08)
06:$4.5M, 07:$7.5M, 08:$8.5M, 09:$8.75M club option ($2M buyout)
agent: Greg Genske, Brian Peters
ML service: 8.000

Odalis Perez lhp
1 year/$0.85M (2008)
agent: Pat Rooney
ML service: 9.027

Oliver Perez lhp
1 year (2008)
won in arbitration 2/22/08 ($6.5M)
agent: Mike Fischlin, Scott Boras Corp.
ML service: 5.034

Andy Pettitte lhp
1 year/$16M (2008)
agents: Hendricks brothers
ML service: 13.000

Sidney Ponson rhp
1 year (2008)
contract purchased 6/27/08
signed as a free agent 6/18/08 (minor-league contract)
agent: Barry Praver
ML service: 8.167

Mark Prior rhp
1 year/$1M (2008)
signed as a free agent 12/26/07
$4.5M in performance bonuses
agent: John Boggs
ML service: 5.131

C.C. Sabathia lhp
2 years/$17.75M (2007-08)
acquired in trade from Cleveland 7/7/08
signed extension 4/05 (Cleveland picked up 2006 option at same time)
07:$8.75M, 08:$9M
may earn $7.75M in award & performance bonuses:
up to $2M in 2006, $3M in 2007, $2.75M in 2008
award bonuses for top 5 finish in MVP vote or top 2 finish in Cy Young vote ($0.25M for 2007 Cy Young)
2007 Cy Young increases 2008 salary to $11M
$0.1M award bonus for All Star selection
agent: Scott Parker, Brian Peters, Legacy Sports
drafted 1998 (1-20)
ML service: 7.000

Curt Schilling rhp
1 year/$8M (2008)
agent: Ed Hayes
ML service: 17.134

Ben Sheets rhp
4 years/$38.5M (2005-08)
$4.5M signing bonus (paid in 3 installments, from 4/05 to 10/06)
05:$4.5M, 06:$8.5M, 07:$10M, 08:$11M
full no-trade clause 2005-07
limited no-trade clause for 2008 (may be traded to only 8 clubs)
agent: Casey Close
ML service: 7.000

John Smoltz rhp
1 year/$14M (2008), plus 2009 & 2010 options
signed extension with Atlanta 4/07
08:$14M, 09:$12M option, 10: club option
2009 option guaranteed with 200 IP in 2008
2010 option: $13M (200 IP in '09) or $12M (less than 200 IP in '09)
agent: Lonnie Cooper, Career Sports & Entertainment
ML service: 19.072

Steve Trachsel rhp
1 year/$1.5M (2008)
DFA by Baltimore 6/10/08, released 6/13/08
contract purchased 3/27/08
signed as a free agent 2/11/08 (minor-league contract)
1 year/$3.1M (2007), plus 2008 club option
signed as a free agent 2/07
07:$3M, 08:$4.75M club option ($0.1M buyout)
performance bonuses: $0.25M annually
agents: Levinson brothers
ML service: 14.017

Kip Wells rhp
1 year/$3.1M (2008)
signed by Colorado as a free agent 12/13/07
$1.5M in performance bonuses
signed by Kansas City as a free agent 8/19/08 after being DFA 8/10/08 (KC pays pro-rated portion of $0.39M ML minimum, with Colorado responsible for balance of Wells' $3.1M salary) released by Kansas City 10/24/08
agent: Hendricks Sports
ML service: 7.116

Randy Wolf lhp
1 year/$4.75M (2008)
acquired in trade from San Diego 7/22/08
agent: Arn Tellum
ML service: 8.115

Jamey Wright rhp
1 year/$1M (2008)
agent: Casey Close
ML service: 9.110

When you consider acquiring a free agent as fickle as a starting pitcher, I think Hendry decided to go with whom he knew. As you can see from this list, many of the pitchers are not in the same league as Dempster, many that are or have a more dazzling resume are on the wrong side of their career, and the few that do compare in age and salary range just didn't many any sense for Hendry to go a different direction unless of course Dempster would have forced the issue by trying to get every dollar possible.

Yeah there are some studs out there. The big one being CC Sabathia, will be asking for the moon, Derek Lowe is 36 and wants the same number of years Dempster took and AJ Burnett and Ben Sheets while talented, will not come much cheaper if at all and pose a health risk that make Kerry Wood look like a sure bet to stay off the disabled list.

The only other course of action for Hendry to take would have been to gamble on a youngster from the organization. Of course this is not Hendry's MO, especially when the team has to perform in the next year or two. Actually I would have prefered to trade Marquis and go with Marshall, but Marquis is due $9.5M. Unless the Yankees swing and miss on the 2 or 3 big starters left, what team would trade for him and absorb Marquis's salary?

The main problem with the Cubs having a rotation with over $50M committed, there isn't much payroll left to acquire the quality leadoff man and power hitting RF unless the budget is expanded. Even with a slightly increased budget, Hendry would still have to be creative with a trade to address the Cubs biggest postseason weakness, a balanced offense. More on that later.

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